Last year I ran in the Lithia Loop Marathon and Karl Meltzer threw out some pre-race odds as a fun way to hype the race. Stealing his idea, I thought it would be fun to lay some odds out for the 2009 Dirty Half Marathon. Keep in mind, this is with limited research and just for fun.
Damon Kluck: 7-2 Damon has come onto the running scene over the past few years. Last year he posted a sub 1:21 Dirty Half which was good enough for a top 6 finish. This year he has already ran a solid Horse Butte finishing second only to Martin. As a former professional cyclist, he has the drive to hang on to just about anyone and certainly has improved with his leg speed. He appears to have a lot of potential and who knows what he might throw down this year.
Jeff Caba: 7-2 Are there rules against having the same odds for 2 people? Well this isn't Vegas anyway. Caba should be in position to challenge Kluck and Larsen for the 3rd spot on the podium. Rumor is he's hired a coach who is pushing him to PR. If you plan to beat Caba, you will have to go Sub 1:18. Of course he is a year older and a bit slower, but he's been watching a lot of inspirational movies. As they say, on any given day...
Mike Condon: 4-1 He isn't currently on the official start list, but is rumored to be looking for a way into the race. If he toes the start line, he will be tough to beat. He was top dog at the Grin and Bear It and Larkspur Lollipop 10k's earlier this year. We'll see what he has left in the tank at half marathon distance.
Sean Meissner: 5-1 Sean has guaranteed a sub 1:20 this year. Well at least he told me that was his goal. He has run a monster off season with victories in the Redding Marathon and the Haleakala Run to the Sun Ultra. We know he's always in shape. If he puts his time in on the track building his leg speed, look for him to finish sub 1:20 and in contention for third place. Otherwise, he'll likely drop back to a 7-10th place finish.
Michael Dennis: 6-1 Primed from a fast 2:50 Eugene Marathon, Mr. Dennis should be as fit as he's ever been for the Dirty Half. Like Kluck, he carries huge potential. If he can hold on through the first 5 mile climb, he should be in good position to battle.
Ryan Rein: 7-1 Rein is well known around his home town of Mercer Island as The Hobbit. This name apparently has emerged due to his ginormous calves and bow legged shuffle. It is unclear if the Dirty Half will suit his hobbit style as this will be his inaugural race. He is a fast, strong runner and has put in weeks of training under the direction of Andy Martin. He will likely be the top non-local runner, but probably won't be able to hang with the Bendites. Ultimately his enormous oxygen consuming calves will anchor him down at the higher Central Oregon altitude. Look for a top 10 finish from Rein. Of note, this is my wife's (Katie Caba) brother. Ryan has been guaranteeing victory over us both. We'll see about that.
Mike Olsen: 8-1 Olsen blitzed the course last year with a 1:20:23, good enough for 4th place. He's been working hard this Spring and is now getting some miles under his legs. If he can put it together in time, he just might find himself in contention.
Jeff Browning: 10-1 If we were running the course twice, Browning might win the whole thing. This is essentially a sprint for him, his speed work if you will. He's always competitive and will likely be a top 10 finisher. If he's on and others aren't, he could sneak into the top 5.
Wildcard: Joe King- Joe has the potential of laying down a smoking fast time with a 1/2 marathon PR of 1:15 and change. He also has the intimidating last name of "King" that strikes fear in all of the Bend runners. The problem is, Joe has been lying low over the past couple years. Will he come out in 1:15 form, or is Joe..slow?
Men's Masters
This should also be a great race. These old guys can run. I didn't see Tim Vandervlugt/Funky Juniper on the start sheet so this race is up for grabs.
Brian Gingerich: 5-2 Brian is a solid low 1:20's runner. He comes to compete every time he toes the line. He has that attorney drive in him that gives him the edge over the field. (You know he read the small print on the entry form). Brian isn't going to hand over his master's crown. Someone is going to have to take it from him.
James Nelson: 3-1 If James' Achilles is back in full swing, watch out. This guy could challenge the youngsters. James is capable of throwing down a low 1:20 and just might do it if you provoke him. Beware of James extra gear that he only brings out when needed. If it comes down to the wire, James will likely take it.
JC Callans: 5-1 JC is another solid mid/upper 1:20's runner. What will it be that separates him from this very competitive group? Perhaps he has been secretly putting in a massive off season training regimen. Word is out and he is officially on the radar after his 2nd place finish in the Redding marathon this winter. Look out for JC to close fast and hard over the last 2 miles.
Joel Vergona: 6-1 Crazy Aussie. What else needs to be said? This guy could run a mid 1:20 off the couch. Trouble is, he has actually been training this year. If you want a dark horse, this is your guy. Don't let him fool you with his sarcasm. He's legit this year.
Brother's Widmer: 7-1 Pat has been looking good at Tuesday night speed workouts. Not certain how Mike's training is going, but Pat refers to him as the faster brother. If that is the case, look out. This dynamic duo just might decide to go 1-2.
Others: If Paul Parsons decides to run, he will be right at the top of the masters. Until his name shows up on the list though, I won't put official odds on him.
Over/Under
This year's over/under will be on whether Mr. Teague Hatfield can break 1:30:00. He continues to inch ever so close to the mark, last year finishing in 1:31:03. Where will he shave that last 63 seconds? Will the TPG workouts and strength training be enough? We'll see come June 14.
These are the current odds. As the race date approaches, there could be slight adjustments pending injuries, new entries etc. Your comments are welcome.
Women's odds to be posted soon!
Male overall
This is essentially a two horse race between Andy Martin and Max King. Andy currently holds the course record of 1:13:37 (2007) and has every intention of breaking it this year. While he very well could PR, he has this part man/ part machine named Max King in the way of victory. Undoubtedly both will be fit come June 14, but overall, Max's impressive speed and technical running skills might just be too much for Martin to overcome. Don't count Andy out though as he has resolve and likes to own course records. All I have to say is, I wish I could watch this one play out, but unfortunately I'll be way behind them.
Max King: 3-2
Andy Martin: 2-1
"The others" will be racing for third place. Here the field is stacked with any one of several individuals capable of grabbing a place on the podium.
Steve Larsen: Godspeed Steve. Forever bib #1. You will be missed.
This is essentially a two horse race between Andy Martin and Max King. Andy currently holds the course record of 1:13:37 (2007) and has every intention of breaking it this year. While he very well could PR, he has this part man/ part machine named Max King in the way of victory. Undoubtedly both will be fit come June 14, but overall, Max's impressive speed and technical running skills might just be too much for Martin to overcome. Don't count Andy out though as he has resolve and likes to own course records. All I have to say is, I wish I could watch this one play out, but unfortunately I'll be way behind them.
Max King: 3-2
Andy Martin: 2-1
"The others" will be racing for third place. Here the field is stacked with any one of several individuals capable of grabbing a place on the podium.
Steve Larsen: Godspeed Steve. Forever bib #1. You will be missed.
Damon Kluck: 7-2 Damon has come onto the running scene over the past few years. Last year he posted a sub 1:21 Dirty Half which was good enough for a top 6 finish. This year he has already ran a solid Horse Butte finishing second only to Martin. As a former professional cyclist, he has the drive to hang on to just about anyone and certainly has improved with his leg speed. He appears to have a lot of potential and who knows what he might throw down this year.
Jeff Caba: 7-2 Are there rules against having the same odds for 2 people? Well this isn't Vegas anyway. Caba should be in position to challenge Kluck and Larsen for the 3rd spot on the podium. Rumor is he's hired a coach who is pushing him to PR. If you plan to beat Caba, you will have to go Sub 1:18. Of course he is a year older and a bit slower, but he's been watching a lot of inspirational movies. As they say, on any given day...
Mike Condon: 4-1 He isn't currently on the official start list, but is rumored to be looking for a way into the race. If he toes the start line, he will be tough to beat. He was top dog at the Grin and Bear It and Larkspur Lollipop 10k's earlier this year. We'll see what he has left in the tank at half marathon distance.
Sean Meissner: 5-1 Sean has guaranteed a sub 1:20 this year. Well at least he told me that was his goal. He has run a monster off season with victories in the Redding Marathon and the Haleakala Run to the Sun Ultra. We know he's always in shape. If he puts his time in on the track building his leg speed, look for him to finish sub 1:20 and in contention for third place. Otherwise, he'll likely drop back to a 7-10th place finish.
Michael Dennis: 6-1 Primed from a fast 2:50 Eugene Marathon, Mr. Dennis should be as fit as he's ever been for the Dirty Half. Like Kluck, he carries huge potential. If he can hold on through the first 5 mile climb, he should be in good position to battle.
Ryan Rein: 7-1 Rein is well known around his home town of Mercer Island as The Hobbit. This name apparently has emerged due to his ginormous calves and bow legged shuffle. It is unclear if the Dirty Half will suit his hobbit style as this will be his inaugural race. He is a fast, strong runner and has put in weeks of training under the direction of Andy Martin. He will likely be the top non-local runner, but probably won't be able to hang with the Bendites. Ultimately his enormous oxygen consuming calves will anchor him down at the higher Central Oregon altitude. Look for a top 10 finish from Rein. Of note, this is my wife's (Katie Caba) brother. Ryan has been guaranteeing victory over us both. We'll see about that.
Mike Olsen: 8-1 Olsen blitzed the course last year with a 1:20:23, good enough for 4th place. He's been working hard this Spring and is now getting some miles under his legs. If he can put it together in time, he just might find himself in contention.
Jeff Browning: 10-1 If we were running the course twice, Browning might win the whole thing. This is essentially a sprint for him, his speed work if you will. He's always competitive and will likely be a top 10 finisher. If he's on and others aren't, he could sneak into the top 5.
Wildcard: Joe King- Joe has the potential of laying down a smoking fast time with a 1/2 marathon PR of 1:15 and change. He also has the intimidating last name of "King" that strikes fear in all of the Bend runners. The problem is, Joe has been lying low over the past couple years. Will he come out in 1:15 form, or is Joe..slow?
Men's Masters
This should also be a great race. These old guys can run. I didn't see Tim Vandervlugt/Funky Juniper on the start sheet so this race is up for grabs.
Brian Gingerich: 5-2 Brian is a solid low 1:20's runner. He comes to compete every time he toes the line. He has that attorney drive in him that gives him the edge over the field. (You know he read the small print on the entry form). Brian isn't going to hand over his master's crown. Someone is going to have to take it from him.
James Nelson: 3-1 If James' Achilles is back in full swing, watch out. This guy could challenge the youngsters. James is capable of throwing down a low 1:20 and just might do it if you provoke him. Beware of James extra gear that he only brings out when needed. If it comes down to the wire, James will likely take it.
JC Callans: 5-1 JC is another solid mid/upper 1:20's runner. What will it be that separates him from this very competitive group? Perhaps he has been secretly putting in a massive off season training regimen. Word is out and he is officially on the radar after his 2nd place finish in the Redding marathon this winter. Look out for JC to close fast and hard over the last 2 miles.
Joel Vergona: 6-1 Crazy Aussie. What else needs to be said? This guy could run a mid 1:20 off the couch. Trouble is, he has actually been training this year. If you want a dark horse, this is your guy. Don't let him fool you with his sarcasm. He's legit this year.
Brother's Widmer: 7-1 Pat has been looking good at Tuesday night speed workouts. Not certain how Mike's training is going, but Pat refers to him as the faster brother. If that is the case, look out. This dynamic duo just might decide to go 1-2.
Others: If Paul Parsons decides to run, he will be right at the top of the masters. Until his name shows up on the list though, I won't put official odds on him.
Over/Under
This year's over/under will be on whether Mr. Teague Hatfield can break 1:30:00. He continues to inch ever so close to the mark, last year finishing in 1:31:03. Where will he shave that last 63 seconds? Will the TPG workouts and strength training be enough? We'll see come June 14.
These are the current odds. As the race date approaches, there could be slight adjustments pending injuries, new entries etc. Your comments are welcome.
Women's odds to be posted soon!
4 comments:
"Limited Research and just for fun?" I don't think the oddsmakers at the Kentucky Derby are working this hard. Forget running, forget surfing. You have found you're calling. You probably should explain some of the betting rules for those of us that don't regularly spend our hard earned cash playing the odds. If I understand it right I have to be $2 to make $3 on Max winning; but what are the rules for placing? If I bet on Caba, do I get a payout for him placing 3rd?
Feel free to bet as much as you want on Caba. I'll handle the transaction.
A few comments...
You're either short-changes you and me, or short-changing me and sandbagging yourself. See, in our last 2 races against Martin, we both kicked his butt at Bigfoot, then you whooped him at the Turkey Trot and I would have if he hadn't clothes lined me. So I say he's at best even with us...perhaps we're even a bit higher on the odd's list.
Next, Mike Olson. He's sandbagging right now. After his seemingly out of nowhere 1:20 last year, I definitely see him running right around 6 min. pace this year. If he says different, he's a liar.
As for me, what's that "t" word you refer to? I have vague memories of some sort of oval shaped, rubberized running surface (if COCC can still be considered rubberized) from months back. However, lots of Smith Rock and hills are making that vision pretty darn blurry. And I only foresee it getting blurrier (is that a word?) in the coming weeks.
Browning would win if it was an 8 lapper, not just 2.
All valid points. Unfortunately Martin has been working on his stiff arm/clothesline tactics and if either of us are close to him, he will likely use them. I don't think we are skilled enough to deal with it. For that reason, I might just decide to hang about 5 minutes behind him. He still gets the nod.
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