Last year I ran in the Lithia Loop Marathon and Karl Meltzer threw out some pre-race odds as a fun way to hype the race. Stealing his idea, I thought it would be fun to lay some odds out for the 2009 Dirty Half Marathon. Keep in mind, this is with limited research and just for fun.
Women's Open
Unless there is an out of town runner that is fast enough to beat most of the guys in this year's field, once again a familiar name will likely be standing atop the podium. Like the men's race, this should come down to two runners, Lisa Nye and Katie Caba. I have a feeling the course record will be going down.
Lisa Nye: 2-1 Former US record holder in the women's steeple chase and course record holder of just about every local race, Nye is still at the top in Bend. From trustworthy sources, she is said to be training hard for the Dirty Half this year. Her 10k speed and hill climbing are on track as shown in her Larkspur Lollipop and Salmon Run 1st place finishes. If her training is on track for a finish time similar to last year, she should be in good shape for the win.
Katie Caba: 3-1 This is Katie's second season now without either being pregnant or nursing a baby and it seems to be showing. Her speed is back and her legs are feeling stronger. She has already shown her 5k speed as she cruised to the Light of Hope victory. The scary thing is, she feels stronger as the distance of her run lengthens. She is still likely a step behind Nye, but if I had a dollar...
The battle for 3rd place is where the women's race really heats up. It's an interesting mix of experienced Dirty Halfers, improved performers and newbies. That coveted third spot should keep them all focused.
Shannon Edwards: 7-2 Shannon is a relative unknown to the Bend running community. She might be hoping to come into the Dirty Half and surprise a few folk at the finish line...who was that fast runner from Yamhill anyway? Unfortunately for Shannon, she didn't escape my internet search. She is a former collegiate trackster and current member of the Eastside track club and has posted solid race times all the way from the 1,500m to the 1/2 marathon. She has the youth and speed to battle with the big two and should be at the front of the pack. But can she handle the single track?
Ahna Jura: 4-1 Ahna fits the categories of experience and improvement. Her second place Horse Butte finish this year shows her improvement and she is a veteran Dirty Halfer. Needless to say she is competitive. Just ask Megan Wrightman who has Ahna's footprint on her back after falling on the trail in front of her. Just kidding, Ahna politely helped her to her feet then threw down the hammer to finish her off. If Ahna continues to train as she has, she might find herself atop the Dirty Half podium for the first time.
Megan Wrightman: 4-1 While a veteran to running, Megan is a newbie to the Dirty Half. Fresh out of competitive cross country racing at Seattle Pacific University, Megan has brought her speed back home to Bend, and intends to put her mark on the Dirty Half. Megan has been witnessed pushing the pace at TPG and is a top 3 Horse Butte finisher showing she can maintain the speed over distance. Will it be enough to hold off the rest of the field?
Kristin Riley: 5-1 Kristen is a veteran Dirty Halfer and top 5 finisher from last year. She can throw it down with the best of them on any given day. She was a few steps off the pace of Jura and Wrightman at this year's Horse Butte, giving them the nod with the odds maker. I wouldn't count Riley out though as she is a proven competitor. Will she seek revenge?
Whitney Woods: 6-1 Whitney has both speed and endurance. She is capable of going sub 1:30 at the 1/2 marathon distance, but the Dirty Half is a whole new beast. I think Whitney will hang tough through mile 9. It's then any one's race. If she's feeling it, she just might throw down the hammer at that point and finish off the competition. I don't think the rest of them will let her off that easy though.
Jen Sventek: 7-1 We know what Jen will run. She apparently runs the same time each year. Consistency is her middle name. The question is, will it be enough on race day to grab that third podium spot? Crazier things have happened. One thing is for certain, Sventek will give it her all, and if you're unfortunate enough to be battling with her, look out.
Mary Primrose:8-1 Possibly the best speed of the group. Give her a 5k-10k and she'll fly. If she can keep her legs for the 1/2 marathon distance, she should place well.
Wildcards: Renee Scott, Amy Freeman- These gals are keeping a lid on their training and are trying to stay under the radar. Renee however, has been caught flying through interval workouts at TPG, but Amy so far has escaped the public eye. We'll just have to wait and see on race day.
Masters Women
Amy Peterson: 3-1 Assuming Amy is Amy, fast, fit and determined, she has to be the favorite in the masters division. She posted a solid 1:36 at the Dirty Half last year as a youthful 39 year old. Now that she is over the hill, can she keep the pace? If so, plan to see Amy wearing a new "masters" crown.
Laura Fritz: 4-1 Over my dead body says Fritz! This wolf in sheep's clothing won't let a newbie master like Peterson waltz in and claim victory without a fight. Fritz is always solid and was able to taste sweet victory last year on the winning Cascade Lakes Relay team. Once victory has been experienced, second place isn't so much fun. Look for Fritz to push Peterson to the end.
Chris Vergona: 5-1 Not quite as crazy as her husband, but rightfully crazy enough to be married to him. Chris is the sleeper in this race. She has been methodically putting in her speed work at TPG, but all under the guise of having fun. Ya right. This Aussie is out for victory. Look for that wicked leg speed she has been building to blast her down the hills. If she can keep from talking and laughing throughout the race, she could be your winner.
Nancy Abraham: 6-1 So what can a 52 year old really bring to the table? How about a 1:34:18 smoking fast half marathon! Scary thing is, you give her a lake and a bike and she'll beat you down even more. We'll see how this talented multi sport athlete takes to the challenging single track. Beware young masters to be educated by the master master.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Dirty Half: Setting the odds
Last year I ran in the Lithia Loop Marathon and Karl Meltzer threw out some pre-race odds as a fun way to hype the race. Stealing his idea, I thought it would be fun to lay some odds out for the 2009 Dirty Half Marathon. Keep in mind, this is with limited research and just for fun.
Damon Kluck: 7-2 Damon has come onto the running scene over the past few years. Last year he posted a sub 1:21 Dirty Half which was good enough for a top 6 finish. This year he has already ran a solid Horse Butte finishing second only to Martin. As a former professional cyclist, he has the drive to hang on to just about anyone and certainly has improved with his leg speed. He appears to have a lot of potential and who knows what he might throw down this year.
Jeff Caba: 7-2 Are there rules against having the same odds for 2 people? Well this isn't Vegas anyway. Caba should be in position to challenge Kluck and Larsen for the 3rd spot on the podium. Rumor is he's hired a coach who is pushing him to PR. If you plan to beat Caba, you will have to go Sub 1:18. Of course he is a year older and a bit slower, but he's been watching a lot of inspirational movies. As they say, on any given day...
Mike Condon: 4-1 He isn't currently on the official start list, but is rumored to be looking for a way into the race. If he toes the start line, he will be tough to beat. He was top dog at the Grin and Bear It and Larkspur Lollipop 10k's earlier this year. We'll see what he has left in the tank at half marathon distance.
Sean Meissner: 5-1 Sean has guaranteed a sub 1:20 this year. Well at least he told me that was his goal. He has run a monster off season with victories in the Redding Marathon and the Haleakala Run to the Sun Ultra. We know he's always in shape. If he puts his time in on the track building his leg speed, look for him to finish sub 1:20 and in contention for third place. Otherwise, he'll likely drop back to a 7-10th place finish.
Michael Dennis: 6-1 Primed from a fast 2:50 Eugene Marathon, Mr. Dennis should be as fit as he's ever been for the Dirty Half. Like Kluck, he carries huge potential. If he can hold on through the first 5 mile climb, he should be in good position to battle.
Ryan Rein: 7-1 Rein is well known around his home town of Mercer Island as The Hobbit. This name apparently has emerged due to his ginormous calves and bow legged shuffle. It is unclear if the Dirty Half will suit his hobbit style as this will be his inaugural race. He is a fast, strong runner and has put in weeks of training under the direction of Andy Martin. He will likely be the top non-local runner, but probably won't be able to hang with the Bendites. Ultimately his enormous oxygen consuming calves will anchor him down at the higher Central Oregon altitude. Look for a top 10 finish from Rein. Of note, this is my wife's (Katie Caba) brother. Ryan has been guaranteeing victory over us both. We'll see about that.
Mike Olsen: 8-1 Olsen blitzed the course last year with a 1:20:23, good enough for 4th place. He's been working hard this Spring and is now getting some miles under his legs. If he can put it together in time, he just might find himself in contention.
Jeff Browning: 10-1 If we were running the course twice, Browning might win the whole thing. This is essentially a sprint for him, his speed work if you will. He's always competitive and will likely be a top 10 finisher. If he's on and others aren't, he could sneak into the top 5.
Wildcard: Joe King- Joe has the potential of laying down a smoking fast time with a 1/2 marathon PR of 1:15 and change. He also has the intimidating last name of "King" that strikes fear in all of the Bend runners. The problem is, Joe has been lying low over the past couple years. Will he come out in 1:15 form, or is Joe..slow?
Men's Masters
This should also be a great race. These old guys can run. I didn't see Tim Vandervlugt/Funky Juniper on the start sheet so this race is up for grabs.
Brian Gingerich: 5-2 Brian is a solid low 1:20's runner. He comes to compete every time he toes the line. He has that attorney drive in him that gives him the edge over the field. (You know he read the small print on the entry form). Brian isn't going to hand over his master's crown. Someone is going to have to take it from him.
James Nelson: 3-1 If James' Achilles is back in full swing, watch out. This guy could challenge the youngsters. James is capable of throwing down a low 1:20 and just might do it if you provoke him. Beware of James extra gear that he only brings out when needed. If it comes down to the wire, James will likely take it.
JC Callans: 5-1 JC is another solid mid/upper 1:20's runner. What will it be that separates him from this very competitive group? Perhaps he has been secretly putting in a massive off season training regimen. Word is out and he is officially on the radar after his 2nd place finish in the Redding marathon this winter. Look out for JC to close fast and hard over the last 2 miles.
Joel Vergona: 6-1 Crazy Aussie. What else needs to be said? This guy could run a mid 1:20 off the couch. Trouble is, he has actually been training this year. If you want a dark horse, this is your guy. Don't let him fool you with his sarcasm. He's legit this year.
Brother's Widmer: 7-1 Pat has been looking good at Tuesday night speed workouts. Not certain how Mike's training is going, but Pat refers to him as the faster brother. If that is the case, look out. This dynamic duo just might decide to go 1-2.
Others: If Paul Parsons decides to run, he will be right at the top of the masters. Until his name shows up on the list though, I won't put official odds on him.
Over/Under
This year's over/under will be on whether Mr. Teague Hatfield can break 1:30:00. He continues to inch ever so close to the mark, last year finishing in 1:31:03. Where will he shave that last 63 seconds? Will the TPG workouts and strength training be enough? We'll see come June 14.
These are the current odds. As the race date approaches, there could be slight adjustments pending injuries, new entries etc. Your comments are welcome.
Women's odds to be posted soon!
Male overall
This is essentially a two horse race between Andy Martin and Max King. Andy currently holds the course record of 1:13:37 (2007) and has every intention of breaking it this year. While he very well could PR, he has this part man/ part machine named Max King in the way of victory. Undoubtedly both will be fit come June 14, but overall, Max's impressive speed and technical running skills might just be too much for Martin to overcome. Don't count Andy out though as he has resolve and likes to own course records. All I have to say is, I wish I could watch this one play out, but unfortunately I'll be way behind them.
Max King: 3-2
Andy Martin: 2-1
"The others" will be racing for third place. Here the field is stacked with any one of several individuals capable of grabbing a place on the podium.
Steve Larsen: Godspeed Steve. Forever bib #1. You will be missed.
This is essentially a two horse race between Andy Martin and Max King. Andy currently holds the course record of 1:13:37 (2007) and has every intention of breaking it this year. While he very well could PR, he has this part man/ part machine named Max King in the way of victory. Undoubtedly both will be fit come June 14, but overall, Max's impressive speed and technical running skills might just be too much for Martin to overcome. Don't count Andy out though as he has resolve and likes to own course records. All I have to say is, I wish I could watch this one play out, but unfortunately I'll be way behind them.
Max King: 3-2
Andy Martin: 2-1
"The others" will be racing for third place. Here the field is stacked with any one of several individuals capable of grabbing a place on the podium.
Steve Larsen: Godspeed Steve. Forever bib #1. You will be missed.
Damon Kluck: 7-2 Damon has come onto the running scene over the past few years. Last year he posted a sub 1:21 Dirty Half which was good enough for a top 6 finish. This year he has already ran a solid Horse Butte finishing second only to Martin. As a former professional cyclist, he has the drive to hang on to just about anyone and certainly has improved with his leg speed. He appears to have a lot of potential and who knows what he might throw down this year.
Jeff Caba: 7-2 Are there rules against having the same odds for 2 people? Well this isn't Vegas anyway. Caba should be in position to challenge Kluck and Larsen for the 3rd spot on the podium. Rumor is he's hired a coach who is pushing him to PR. If you plan to beat Caba, you will have to go Sub 1:18. Of course he is a year older and a bit slower, but he's been watching a lot of inspirational movies. As they say, on any given day...
Mike Condon: 4-1 He isn't currently on the official start list, but is rumored to be looking for a way into the race. If he toes the start line, he will be tough to beat. He was top dog at the Grin and Bear It and Larkspur Lollipop 10k's earlier this year. We'll see what he has left in the tank at half marathon distance.
Sean Meissner: 5-1 Sean has guaranteed a sub 1:20 this year. Well at least he told me that was his goal. He has run a monster off season with victories in the Redding Marathon and the Haleakala Run to the Sun Ultra. We know he's always in shape. If he puts his time in on the track building his leg speed, look for him to finish sub 1:20 and in contention for third place. Otherwise, he'll likely drop back to a 7-10th place finish.
Michael Dennis: 6-1 Primed from a fast 2:50 Eugene Marathon, Mr. Dennis should be as fit as he's ever been for the Dirty Half. Like Kluck, he carries huge potential. If he can hold on through the first 5 mile climb, he should be in good position to battle.
Ryan Rein: 7-1 Rein is well known around his home town of Mercer Island as The Hobbit. This name apparently has emerged due to his ginormous calves and bow legged shuffle. It is unclear if the Dirty Half will suit his hobbit style as this will be his inaugural race. He is a fast, strong runner and has put in weeks of training under the direction of Andy Martin. He will likely be the top non-local runner, but probably won't be able to hang with the Bendites. Ultimately his enormous oxygen consuming calves will anchor him down at the higher Central Oregon altitude. Look for a top 10 finish from Rein. Of note, this is my wife's (Katie Caba) brother. Ryan has been guaranteeing victory over us both. We'll see about that.
Mike Olsen: 8-1 Olsen blitzed the course last year with a 1:20:23, good enough for 4th place. He's been working hard this Spring and is now getting some miles under his legs. If he can put it together in time, he just might find himself in contention.
Jeff Browning: 10-1 If we were running the course twice, Browning might win the whole thing. This is essentially a sprint for him, his speed work if you will. He's always competitive and will likely be a top 10 finisher. If he's on and others aren't, he could sneak into the top 5.
Wildcard: Joe King- Joe has the potential of laying down a smoking fast time with a 1/2 marathon PR of 1:15 and change. He also has the intimidating last name of "King" that strikes fear in all of the Bend runners. The problem is, Joe has been lying low over the past couple years. Will he come out in 1:15 form, or is Joe..slow?
Men's Masters
This should also be a great race. These old guys can run. I didn't see Tim Vandervlugt/Funky Juniper on the start sheet so this race is up for grabs.
Brian Gingerich: 5-2 Brian is a solid low 1:20's runner. He comes to compete every time he toes the line. He has that attorney drive in him that gives him the edge over the field. (You know he read the small print on the entry form). Brian isn't going to hand over his master's crown. Someone is going to have to take it from him.
James Nelson: 3-1 If James' Achilles is back in full swing, watch out. This guy could challenge the youngsters. James is capable of throwing down a low 1:20 and just might do it if you provoke him. Beware of James extra gear that he only brings out when needed. If it comes down to the wire, James will likely take it.
JC Callans: 5-1 JC is another solid mid/upper 1:20's runner. What will it be that separates him from this very competitive group? Perhaps he has been secretly putting in a massive off season training regimen. Word is out and he is officially on the radar after his 2nd place finish in the Redding marathon this winter. Look out for JC to close fast and hard over the last 2 miles.
Joel Vergona: 6-1 Crazy Aussie. What else needs to be said? This guy could run a mid 1:20 off the couch. Trouble is, he has actually been training this year. If you want a dark horse, this is your guy. Don't let him fool you with his sarcasm. He's legit this year.
Brother's Widmer: 7-1 Pat has been looking good at Tuesday night speed workouts. Not certain how Mike's training is going, but Pat refers to him as the faster brother. If that is the case, look out. This dynamic duo just might decide to go 1-2.
Others: If Paul Parsons decides to run, he will be right at the top of the masters. Until his name shows up on the list though, I won't put official odds on him.
Over/Under
This year's over/under will be on whether Mr. Teague Hatfield can break 1:30:00. He continues to inch ever so close to the mark, last year finishing in 1:31:03. Where will he shave that last 63 seconds? Will the TPG workouts and strength training be enough? We'll see come June 14.
These are the current odds. As the race date approaches, there could be slight adjustments pending injuries, new entries etc. Your comments are welcome.
Women's odds to be posted soon!
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Hobbit Runners Rejoice
Bendrunner,
See you on June 9 at the dirty half. I will be the runner carrying number 3 banner for overweight, bow-legged, hobbit runners.
I think I will hire Martin as well, and and actually pay him to train you astray. The race is only 6 weeks away. Isn't it time for you to taper?
Best regards,
The heavy one.
See you on June 9 at the dirty half. I will be the runner carrying number 3 banner for overweight, bow-legged, hobbit runners.
I think I will hire Martin as well, and and actually pay him to train you astray. The race is only 6 weeks away. Isn't it time for you to taper?
Best regards,
The heavy one.
Farewell Snuggie, Hello Coach
It's official. The Snuggie has been neatly folded and stowed, the guitar has been set aside, and the running shoes have been donned. Weekly miles are accumulating at a maddening pace, currently up to 35! Injuries are slowly healing. The weather is warming. Days are lengthening. Hope is on the rise.
Ben crossing the finish line in the "Grin and Bear It" 1 mile fun run
Now back to reality. I'm still out of shape and am reminded of this each time I run with Martin. I remember about 5 months ago when he was rehabbing from injury, how much I enjoyed listening to him breathe hard while I comfortably ran along side. I wonder if he experiences the same pleasure? Slowly but surely things are coming around though. I was able to put a couple of solid runs in the last two weeks without worsening my Achilles pain and am starting to run with a bit more confidence. Now I just need consistency...
Enter Coach Martin. I have officially decided to hire Martin (although haven't paid him yet) to help me along. I figure the top two podium spots in Bend are taken by Max and Martin, but the third spot is up for grabs. I was thinking about all the competition in Bend for the third spot... Dennis, Kluck, Larsen, Violette, Condon, Parsons, Meissner and others that I don't know about or haven't listed. I need an edge, and having a coach just might give me one....
...Plus, I want to be able to fire him at some point.
So, if all goes well I hope to be toeing the line at The Dirty Half, where I'll throw my name in the hat for #3. I have a lot of ground to make up, as most of the guys I listed above are in great shape right now. I'd actually be satisfied with a PR at The Dirty Half, regardless of what the others do. I haven't decided about summer/fall races. Katie and I have talked about running in more trail events at varying distances. I at least need to be present to defend my Lithia Loop Marathon title, however I expect to be thoroughly whipped in that race. At some point I need to run a 2:39 marathon to keep with my goal of running 2 hours plus my age until the age of 60.
For now, I'll methodically train and see where I am down the road. Actually, I think I'll start tomorrow. Hopefully at some point I'll inspire my kids to be active. Who knows, they might actually be fast like their mom.
Ben crossing the finish line in the "Grin and Bear It" 1 mile fun runjc
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